05.05.26
Bills Rising, Ballots Cast
Energy bills are set to jump £202 in July as Ofgem confirms a 12% price cap rise, the biggest electoral test of the Starmer government lands on Thursday, and London's May art season opens in force.
ENERGY BILLS SET TO RISE £202 IN JULY, ELECTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH REFORM AND GREENS SURGING, ZURBAРАН OPENS AT THE NATIONAL GALLERY, AND PHOTO LONDON MOVES TO OLYMPIA LONDON. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
Energy bills to rise £202 from July
Ofgem is expected to confirm the July price cap by 27 May, and the number is not going to be comfortable. Cornwall Insight, the energy consultancy with the strongest track record for accuracy, is forecasting a rise of around 12%, pushing typical annual bills from £1,641 to approximately £1,843. Close to 12 million UK households on standard variable tariffs will be affected. Research by Uswitch found that 63% of those households are unaware the increase is coming, with many believing their bills will fall. Analysis suggests that households willing to switch to a fixed tariff now could save around £233 compared with the projected July cap. If you are on a standard variable tariff, speaking to your supplier or an energy broker before the announcement date is worth doing.
What the elections mean for your finances
Local elections take place across England, Scotland and Wales on Thursday, representing the biggest electoral test for the Starmer government since 2024. Polls point to significant Labour losses, with Reform UK expected to take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk, and the Greens making strong gains in urban areas. The financial implications are less about the results themselves and more about what they signal. As Barclays Private Bank noted this week, a weak Labour performance could push gilt yields higher, feeding into mortgage rates and broader borrowing costs, and complicating the Bank of England's path on rates. Sterling and domestically focused equities are also sensitive to political uncertainty. The results will start coming in on Friday morning.
Gilt yields hit their highest since 2008, markets price in hikes
UK 10-year gilt yields touched 5.1% this week, their highest level since July 2008, as markets continued to price in rate hikes following last week's Bank of England decision. The MPC held at 3.75% but one member voted to raise immediately, and the Bank's own April Monetary Policy Report put inflation in a worst-case scenario at 6.2% by early 2027. Markets are now pricing in close to three quarter-point hikes before the year ends. For pension funds with significant bond allocations, estate planners working with clients who hold fixed income assets, and anyone with a large mortgage, this is a backdrop worth understanding with your adviser rather than watching from a distance.
Last chance for the Courtauld's women landscape painters
A financial note with a cultural edge: the Courtauld's exhibition A View of One's Own, spotlighting landscapes by British women artists from 1760 to 1860, closes on 20 May. It runs alongside Seurat and the Sea, which closes even sooner on 17 May. The Courtauld is one of the most underrated galleries in London and this double bill has been exceptional. If you have been meaning to go, this week and next are your last chances. Admission covers both exhibitions.
Energy bills, gilt yields, local elections: three separate forces, all pushing in the same uncomfortable direction this week.
CULTURE AND LIFE
Zurbarán opens at the National Gallery
One of the most significant Old Master shows London has seen in years opened on 2 May at the National Gallery and runs until 23 August. Francisco de Zurbarán was the great painter of 17th century Seville, and this exhibition brings together over 50 works, including soaring altarpieces, contemplative still lifes and his luminous depictions of saints in gleaming white habits. The show is the first major UK exhibition dedicated to Zurbarán, and several works have never been seen outside Spain. Tickets from £20, and very much worth booking in advance for the summer months.
Photo London at Olympia London
Photo London has relocated this year to the National Hall at Olympia London for its 11th edition, running from 14 to 17 May with a preview day on 13 May. After a decade at Somerset House, the move to Olympia brings considerably more space and a strong programme of international galleries, curated exhibitions, talks and screenings. This year's programme includes strong work in documentary and portraiture. The Deutsche Börse Photography Prize shortlist is separately on at the Photographers' Gallery until 7 June. If you enjoy photography as a collecting category, this is one of the best fairs to see what is available at a range of price points.
Affordable Art Fair, Hampstead
The Affordable Art Fair opens in Hampstead this week from 6 to 10 May, bringing together galleries from across the world with works priced for a range of budgets. If you have been thinking about starting a collection or adding to one, this is one of the friendliest entry points on the London art calendar. The Hampstead edition tends to have a strong showing of emerging British artists alongside international names. Tickets are required and available on the door or in advance online.
ON THE HORIZON
7 May: Local elections across England, Scotland and Wales
The polls open Thursday. Over 4,850 council seats are up for election in England, alongside the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd. Results will begin to emerge on Friday morning. The performance of Reform UK in English county councils and the Greens in urban areas will be the defining narrative to watch, alongside what the results mean for the stability of the Starmer government and, by extension, the gilt market.
27 May: Ofgem price cap announcement
Ofgem must confirm the July to September price cap by 27 May. The number is widely expected to be around 12% above the current level, with typical annual bills rising to approximately £1,843. If you are on a standard variable tariff and have not yet looked at fixed deals, the three weeks between now and that announcement are your window to act before the market adjusts.
16 May: Rising Voices opens at the V&A
One of the most anticipated exhibitions of the London summer opens at the V&A on 16 May. Rising Voices: Contemporary Art from Asia, Australia and the Pacific brings together 40 artists from across the region in a landmark collaboration between the V&A and QAGOMA in Brisbane, drawing on over 30 years of the Asia Pacific Triennial. Foregrounding First Nations perspectives, the show runs until January 2027. Tickets from £17.
The Dura Society | Women Wealth Well-Being
thedurasociety.com