26.05.26
A Glimpse of Relief
Inflation dropped to 2.8% in April, oil fell below $98 as peace talks tentatively resumed, and UK unemployment crept higher. The good news is real but fragile, and economists are already warning the numbers will worsen again by summer.
INFLATION FALLS TO 2.8% BUT ECONOMISTS SAY IT WON'T LAST, OIL DROPS AS IRAN PEACE TALKS RESUME, UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 5%, AND RONI HORN OPENS AT HAUSER & WIRTH. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
Inflation falls to 2.8% — but do not get comfortable
April CPI came in at 2.8%, surprising to the downside and beating economist expectations of 3%. The main driver was the Ofgem energy price cap, which fell 7% on 1 April partly because its assessment period ran from November 2025 to February 2026, before the Iran conflict began, and partly because the government removed green levies from household bills, cutting the average annual bill by £117 to £1,641. The relief is welcome, but economists are near-unanimous that it is temporary. Schroders senior economist George Brown warned this week that inflation is set to "leap at the end of spring", with higher energy costs from the conflict likely to push CPI above 4% later this year once the next price cap reflects current wholesale prices. The Bank of England cannot afford complacency, and neither can anyone whose financial planning assumed a benign inflation path through 2026.
Oil falls below $98 as Iran peace talks resume
Brent crude fell sharply at the start of this week, dropping to around $97 a barrel, after President Trump posted over the weekend that negotiations with Tehran were proceeding in an "orderly and constructive manner", though he also instructed officials not to rush into a deal. The bank holiday on Monday kept trading volumes subdued, but equity markets advanced across Asia and Europe on the news, and eurozone sovereign yields declined. The ceasefire that has been in place since early April remains technically intact, though its status has been repeatedly questioned. Analysts caution that even in a best-case scenario, meaningful price relief at the pump and on energy bills would take three to six months to materialise as depleted inventories rebuild and the Strait of Hormuz normalises. Oil is still more than a third higher than it was before the war began.
Unemployment rises to 5% as vacancies hit a five-year low
ONS data published last week showed UK unemployment rose to 5% in the three months to March 2026, up from 4.9% the month before, with the number of job openings falling 3.9% to 705,000, the lowest level in five years. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation has separately reported that demand for permanent staff has been falling steadily, with businesses preferring temporary contracts as they navigate the uncertainty. For women considering a career move, negotiating a new contract, or managing hiring decisions within their organisations, the labour market has softened considerably from where it was 12 months ago. That context matters for the strength of any negotiating position in the months ahead.
Mortgage arrears rising, but lenders are offering support
UK Finance published its Q1 2026 mortgage arrears and possessions data this week. The number of homeowners in arrears continues to rise, driven by the combination of higher mortgage rates, energy costs and a softening labour market. Lenders are emphasising their support options for customers in difficulty, including repayment plans and payment holidays, and the industry body stressed that any customer struggling to meet payments should contact their lender directly rather than waiting for a missed payment. If you have clients, colleagues or family members in this position, the key message is the same as it has been for two years: act early, before arrears accumulate.
Inflation fell in April because of a price cap set before the war started. By July, that cap resets. The picture will look very different then.
CULTURE AND LIFE
Roni Horn at Hauser & Wirth
Roni Horn: Seizure of Hope opened at Hauser & Wirth on 21 May and runs until 1 August, free entry. Horn is one of the most consistently interesting artists working today, known for her glasswork, photography and text pieces that explore identity, place and the instability of meaning. This new body of work, her first London show in several years, is named after the seizure as a moment of sudden transformation and brings together sculptural glass works alongside new drawings. Worth visiting on a weekday morning when the Savile Row gallery is at its most contemplative.
Helen Marten opens at Sadie Coles HQ tomorrow
Helen Marten: This Weather opens at Sadie Coles HQ on Savile Row on Wednesday 27 May and runs until 12 September, free entry. Marten, who won the Turner Prize in 2016, makes dense, layered works that collapse together references from art history, manufacturing, language and daily life. Her shows tend to reward multiple visits as the eye keeps finding new things. If you are in the Mayfair area this week, the private view is tomorrow evening and the gallery is open to the public from Thursday. One of the more anticipated openings of the London summer season.
Last chance: Catherine Opie at the National Portrait Gallery
Catherine Opie: To Be Seen closes on Sunday at the National Portrait Gallery, making this week your final opportunity to see the first major UK museum exhibition dedicated to the American photographer. Opie has spent three decades documenting communities that exist on the margins of mainstream visibility, from her early portraits of queer subcultures in 1990s Los Angeles to her more recent studies of football fans, surfers and domestic interiors. The NPG show brings together work spanning her full career and is one of the strongest photography exhibitions London has seen this year. Free with NPG admission until Sunday 31 May.
Whistler opens at Tate Britain
James McNeill Whistler opened at Tate Britain on 21 May, the first major European retrospective of his work in 30 years, and it is already generating strong reviews. Whistler arrived in London and proceeded to rewrite the rules of portrait painting, stripping away narrative context to focus on the individual and pioneering the atmospheric nocturne as a form, those smoggy, light-flecked visions of London at night that feel as contemporary now as they did in the 1870s. The show runs until 27 September and includes rarely seen early work from his teens in St Petersburg alongside the world-famous Whistler's Mother. Tickets from £24.
ON THE HORIZON
27 May: Ofgem July price cap announcement
Ofgem must confirm the July to September price cap by today. Cornwall Insight has been forecasting a rise of around 12% from the current £1,641 level, pushing typical annual bills to approximately £1,843. The assessment period for this cap will, unlike April's, capture the full impact of the Iran conflict on wholesale energy prices. The announcement will land either today or in the next few days and will set the tone for the second half of the year for household finances and the inflation outlook.
18 June: Bank of England rate decision
The next MPC meeting is three weeks away. The surprise downside in April inflation may give the committee slightly more room to hold without hiking, but the July price cap announcement this week will be a major input into their deliberations. Markets are still pricing in rate hikes before the year end. The June statement will be one of the most closely watched in years.
25 June: Frida Kahlo opens at Tate Modern
Frida: The Making of an Icon opens at Tate Modern on 25 June and runs until January 2027. One of the most anticipated exhibitions of the year. Book in advance, particularly for weekend visits in June and July.
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