15.03.26
Oil at $110 and Climbing
The Strait of Hormuz is in near-total blockade, gilt yields are surging, and mortgage lenders are pulling products. A week that changed the economic picture for 2026.
BRENT CRUDE HITS $110, MORTGAGE LENDERS PULL PRODUCTS, HOCKNEY OPENS FREE AT THE SERPENTINE, AND WOMEN IN PRISONS PHOTOGRAPHED OVER A DECADE. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
Brent crude hits $110 as Hormuz blockade tightens
Oil prices breached $110 per barrel on 15 March, with Brent crude at its highest level in years as the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second week. Roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes through the waterway, and the disruption is now being described by the International Energy Agency as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. For UK households, petrol prices have already risen 14 pence a litre since the conflict began. Energy bills are expected to follow later in the year when the next Ofgem price cap is set.
Mortgage lenders pull products as gilt yields surge
In a development with immediate consequences for homeowners, mortgage lenders began withdrawing fixed-rate products this week as rising gilt yields pushed up their cost of funding. The two-year gilt yield hit its highest point since April 2025, reflecting markets repricing both inflation risk and the prospect that the Bank of England may now hike rather than cut rates. For anyone coming off a fixed deal in the next six months, the calculus has changed sharply. Speaking to your broker sooner rather than later is worth doing.
UK economy flatlined before the crisis even started
GDP data confirmed this week that the UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q4 2025, matching the similarly anaemic reading in Q3. The figures predate the Iran conflict entirely, meaning the base from which the UK enters 2026 is weaker than the government had hoped. With the British Chambers of Commerce already cutting their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0%, and Oxford Economics projecting just 0.4%, the question is no longer whether the year will disappoint but by how much.
Most UK savers unaware of pension tax relief
A reminder from new research this week that most UK savers do not understand how pension tax relief works, which translates directly into money left on the table. A basic rate taxpayer contributing to a pension receives 20% tax relief automatically, meaning a 100 contribution costs only 80. Higher rate taxpayers can claim an additional 20% through self-assessment. With the annual pension allowance at 60,000 for the 2025/26 tax year, the tax year end on 5 April is approaching fast. If you have not maxed your pension this year, the next three weeks matter.
When the economic picture changes this fast, the people who act early protect the most. The next few weeks are not a time for waiting to see.
CULTURE AND LIFE
David Hockney opens free at the Serpentine
David Hockney's first exhibition at the Serpentine opened on 12 March and runs until August, entirely free. The centrepiece is A Year in Normandie, his celebrated 90-metre-long frieze depicting the changing seasons on a single stretch of French countryside, making its London debut alongside new iPad paintings and the Moon Room. It is a joyful, unhurried show, and exactly the kind of antidote the week calls for. No booking required, just walk in through Kensington Gardens.
Tracey Emin at Tate: open and essential
Tracey Emin's major retrospective A Second Life continues at Tate Modern, having opened last month to strong reviews. Spanning 40 years of her practice across painting, neon, textile and installation, it is the most comprehensive survey of her career ever staged in the UK. Her work has always used the body as a canvas for everything that is difficult to say out loud, and the show earns its scale. Running until 31 August, bookable online with timed entry.
Deutsche Börse Photography Prize at the Photographers' Gallery
The shortlist for this year's Deutsche Börse Photography Foundation Prize is showing at the Photographers' Gallery until 7 June, with tickets from 8.50. Among the four shortlisted artists is Jane Evelyn Atwood, whose decade-long project documenting incarcerated women across 40 prisons in nine countries is quietly extraordinary. It is the kind of work that stays with you. Free on Friday evenings after 5pm, which makes it an easy addition to any end-of-week plans.
ON THE HORIZON
19 March: Bank of England rate decision
The MPC meets on 19 March with a unanimous hold widely expected. More important than the decision itself will be the tone of Governor Bailey's statement and any updated guidance on the inflation outlook. The Bank has already signalled it expects CPI to reach between 3% and 3.5% in the second and third quarters. What it says about the path beyond that will move markets.
5 April: ISA and pension deadlines approaching
Three weeks from now the 2025/26 tax year closes. Your 20,000 ISA allowance and up to 60,000 pension contribution limit both reset on 6 April with no carry-over on the ISA. With the cash ISA limit being cut from April 2027, this year's deadline is particularly significant. If you have not yet acted, the window is narrowing.
Schiaparelli at the V&A opening 28 March
Two weeks until the most anticipated fashion exhibition of the spring opens at the V&A. Schiaparelli: Fashion Becomes Art spans over a century of the house's history across more than 200 objects, from the surrealist collaborations of the 1930s to Daniel Roseberry's contemporary haute couture. Tickets from 28 at weekends, and already selling fast. Worth booking now if you plan to go in April.
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