22.03.26
When the Economy Catches a Cold
The Bank of England holds, UK growth is downgraded, and London's spring art season opens with a string of shows worth your time.
BANK RATES ON HOLD, UK GROWTH DOWNGRADED, ROSE WYLIE AT THE ROYAL ACADEMY, AND SCHIAPARELLI COMING TO THE V&A. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
The Bank of England holds at 3.75%
The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 3.75% this week, a move widely expected after the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February reshaped the inflation outlook overnight. Before the war, most economists anticipated at least one cut in the first half of 2026. Now markets have priced out cuts entirely, and some are beginning to price in a hike later in the year. For anyone on a variable rate or approaching a fixed rate renewal, the window for cheaper borrowing has narrowed considerably.
OECD downgrades UK more than any other G7 nation
The OECD's interim economic report published this week cut the UK's 2026 growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7%, the steepest downgrade of any G7 country. Inflation, it warned, could hit 4% this year as energy prices feed through to household bills, food costs and business margins. The UK's particular exposure reflects its relatively high dependence on imported energy, a position successive governments have promised to address and repeatedly delayed. The title of the report, Testing Resilience, feels apt.
Spring Statement: what changed and what did not
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Statement against a backdrop of genuine economic turbulence. The headline was that the public finances remain broadly on track with the Autumn Budget plans, though the OBR noted those plans depend on spending cuts scheduled for 2029 to 2031, a long way off. For personal finances, the most significant confirmed change remains the pension inheritance tax reform from April 2027, when unused pension funds will fall within the scope of IHT for the first time. If that sits in your estate planning, now is the time to revisit it rather than wait for the guidance to finalise.
Consumer confidence falls to an 11-month low
The GfK consumer confidence index fell to -21 in March from -19 in February, its lowest reading in nearly a year. The mood reflects rising energy bills, uncertainty about interest rates and a broader sense that the economic picture has deteriorated faster than expected. For businesses serving HNW clients, the knock-on effect on discretionary spending and investment appetite is worth watching. Sentiment tends to lead behaviour by a few months.
The rate cuts that many were waiting for may not arrive this year. Plan your finances accordingly rather than hopefully.
CULTURE AND LIFE
Rose Wylie at the Royal Academy
Rose Wylie OBE RA has taken over the Main Galleries of the Royal Academy with her largest UK survey to date, running until 19 April. Now in her eighties, Wylie is one of the most distinctive painters working in Britain, her large-format canvases full of Elizabeth I, Marilyn Monroe, Serena Williams and Snow White, interwoven with her own memories of living through the Blitz as a young girl. She only achieved wide recognition in her fifties. It is a show about looking, about women, and about what it takes to stay committed to something over a lifetime. Tickets from 21.
Schiaparelli opens at the V&A this week
Schiaparelli: Fashion Becomes Art opens at the V&A on 28 March, and early previews suggest it will be one of the year's unmissable shows. Over 200 objects span a century of the house's history, from Elsa Schiaparelli's surrealist collaborations with Salvador Dali in the 1930s through to Daniel Roseberry's contemporary haute couture. Highlights include the Skeleton dress, the Tears dress and the shoe hat conceived with Dali. For anyone interested in the intersection of art, fashion and female creative ambition, this is the exhibition of the spring. Book in advance.
David Hockney, free at the Serpentine
David Hockney's first exhibition at the Serpentine is free and running until August, bringing his celebrated 90-metre-long frieze A Year in Normandie to London for the first time alongside new iPad paintings and the Moon Room. It is an unexpectedly joyful antidote to a week of gloomy economic data. The Serpentine North gallery, tucked into the south side of Hyde Park, is worth an hour of anyone's time on a spring morning. No booking required.
ON THE HORIZON
5 April: ISA deadline
Two weeks away. Your full 20,000 annual ISA allowance must be used by 5 April or it is lost permanently. Given that the cash ISA limit will be cut to 12,000 for under-65s from April 2027, this year's deadline carries extra weight. If you have not yet used your allowance, this is the week to act.
6 April: VCT relief drops to 20%
Income tax relief on Venture Capital Trust subscriptions falls from 30% to 20% on 6 April. For those considering a VCT investment, the next two weeks are the last opportunity to lock in the higher rate. Worth a conversation with your adviser before the end of the month.
Ethnicity and disability pay gap reporting confirmed
The government confirmed this week that mandatory ethnicity and disability pay gap reporting will be introduced for employers with 250 or more employees, mirroring the existing gender pay gap framework. Legislation will follow as soon as Parliamentary time allows. For women in senior roles pushing for transparency in their organisations, this is a meaningful shift in the regulatory landscape.
The Dura Society | Women Wealth Well-Being
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