14.04.26
Talks Collapse, Blockade Begins
Peace negotiations in Islamabad failed over the weekend, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports started Monday, and oil is above $100 again. A week that nobody wanted.
IRAN PEACE TALKS COLLAPSE, US BLOCKADE SENDS OIL ABOVE $100, MARCH INFLATION DATA DROPS TOMORROW, AND THE V&A HEADS EAST THIS WEEKEND. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
Islamabad talks fail, US blockade begins
After 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed on Sunday without a deal. Vice President Vance cited Iran's unwillingness to commit to ending uranium enrichment as the sticking point. Trump responded by announcing a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which came into effect on Monday morning. Oil rose back above $100 a barrel in response. The ceasefire is technically still in place but its status is fragile. For UK households, the conflict has already pushed petrol prices up 14 pence a litre since February, and energy analysts warn that bills will rise further when the July price cap is set, with the Iran situation likely to feed directly into Ofgem's calculation.
Stagflation fears return to markets
The renewed escalation sent UK stocks lower on Monday, with the FTSE 100 continuing to flatline as stagflation concerns re-emerged. The combination of rising energy prices and weak underlying economic growth is the scenario central banks find hardest to navigate, because cutting rates to support growth risks stoking inflation, while holding or raising them to contain inflation risks deepening the slowdown. The Bank of England's next decision is 30 April. Before the weekend's events, a hold was near-certain. Markets are now reassessing.
March CPI data drops tomorrow
The ONS publishes March inflation data on 22 April, and it will be the first reading to capture the early weeks of the Iran conflict's energy price impact. February's CPI held at 3.0%, but that data was collected before the war began. The Bank of England has already signalled it expects inflation to rise to between 3% and 3.5% by the second and third quarters. Tomorrow's number will tell us how quickly that repricing is feeding through, and it will be closely watched by mortgage markets, pension trustees and anyone making fixed income decisions in the coming months.
UK house prices: a mixed picture
Nationwide data published last week showed UK house price growth picked up in March to 2.2% annually, up from 1% in February. But the building society was quick to note that the short-term outlook is now uncertain given the conflict in the Middle East. Before the war, financial markets anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2026. Economists are now projecting potential hikes instead, which would push mortgage rates higher. Around 1.3 million UK homeowners are expected to see mortgage payments rise by the end of 2028. For anyone considering a move or remortgage this year, the picture has changed significantly since January.
Oil above $100, talks collapsed, inflation data due tomorrow. This is a week to stay informed and resist the urge to make reactive decisions.
CULTURE AND LIFE
Last chance: Rose Wylie at the Royal Academy closes Sunday
Rose Wylie's landmark survey at the Royal Academy closes this Sunday 19 April, so if you have been meaning to go, this is the week. The show brings together over 90 works spanning her career, with Elizabeth I, Marilyn Monroe, Serena Williams and Snow White all making appearances across her large-format canvases. Wylie only achieved wide recognition in her fifties and is now in her eighties. It is one of the most generous and unusual shows the RA has staged in years. Tickets from 21, and worth every penny.
V&A East opens this Saturday
The V&A East Museum opens on Saturday 18 April in the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park in Stratford, one of the most significant cultural openings London has seen in years. Its inaugural exhibition, The Music is Black: A British Story, traces 125 years of Black British music from jazz through to grime, with Joan Armatrading's childhood guitar among the highlights. The permanent Why We Make galleries are free. The building, designed by O'Donnell + Tuomey, is itself worth the journey east. Book the main exhibition in advance.
Paula Rego's drawings at Victoria Miro
Paula Rego: Story Line opened at Victoria Miro last week and runs until 23 May, free entry. The exhibition brings together drawings spanning her entire career, from a sketch of her grandmother made when she was nine to works completed shortly before her death. Rego's figurative work told stories about women's lives that were often uncomfortable and always precise. This is an intimate, absorbing show, and one of the quieter pleasures of the spring season in London.
ON THE HORIZON
22 April: March inflation data published
The first CPI reading to reflect the Iran conflict's impact on energy and commodity prices. The number will set the tone for mortgage markets and shape expectations ahead of the Bank of England's 30 April decision. Worth watching closely.
30 April: Bank of England rate decision
The MPC meets on 30 April in one of the most uncertain monetary policy environments in years. A hold at 3.75% remains the base case but is no longer a certainty. If inflation surprises significantly to the upside this week, the language of the 30 April statement will be hawkish. Some economists are no longer ruling out a hike later in 2026.
France and UK to co-host Hormuz conference
French President Macron announced this week that France and Britain will co-organise a conference of countries willing to contribute to a peaceful multinational mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK will not join the US blockade, with Starmer stating that Britain's focus is on reopening the strait through diplomacy and minesweeping. The conference is expected in the coming days. Its outcome will be material to the energy and inflation outlook for the rest of 2026.
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