21.04.26
Inflation Up, Growth Down, Reeves in Washington
March CPI rose to 3.3%, the IMF gave the UK its biggest G7 growth downgrade, and unemployment fell unexpectedly. A week of contradictions, with the Bank of England rate decision just days away.
INFLATION HITS 3.3%, THE IMF DELIVERS THE UK'S BIGGEST G7 DOWNGRADE, UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS AGAINST THE ODDS, AND THE V&A EAST OPENS IN STRATFORD. YOUR WEEK, DIGESTED BY DURA.
MONEY MATTERS
March inflation rises to 3.3%
The ONS published March CPI data on Wednesday, showing inflation rose to 3.3% in the year to March, up from 3.0% in February. It is the first official reading to capture the Iran conflict's impact on energy and fuel costs, and it landed broadly in line with what the Bank of England had signalled to expect. Petrol is now 24.7p a litre more expensive than before the war began, with the average litre sitting at 157p. Some forecasters expect inflation to push above 4% by the autumn as the energy price shock continues to feed through to household bills and business costs. The Bank of England meets on 30 April and this number will sit at the centre of its deliberations.
IMF delivers UK's biggest G7 growth downgrade
At its Spring Meetings in Washington this week, the IMF cut its UK 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%, down from 1.3% in January, the steepest downgrade of any G7 economy. The Fund cited the UK's heavy reliance on imported gas as the key vulnerability, alongside slower Bank of England rate cuts as the inflation outlook deteriorates. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who was in Washington for the meetings, said the UK would beat the forecast if the conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, calling de-escalation plainly and directly the best economic policy available. She also criticised the US for having no clear exit plan from the conflict.
Unemployment falls unexpectedly to 4.9%
ONS labour market data published on Tuesday showed the UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to February 2026, down from 5.2% previously, a surprise improvement against the broader economic backdrop. Regular wage growth came in at 3.6%, with public sector pay running at 5.2% due to last year's settlement timing. The bright spot is limited, though: vacancy levels fell to their lowest since 2021, down 65,000 on the year, and payrolled employees continue to decline. The picture is one of a labour market that has not yet broken, but is clearly under strain.
What the 30 April rate decision now means
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 30 April with this week's data firmly in hand: inflation at 3.3% and rising, the IMF's grim growth projections, and a labour market that is softening but not collapsing. The base case remains a hold at 3.75%, but the language of the statement will matter enormously. Markets are watching for any signal of a hike later in the year. For anyone with a mortgage, investments in rate-sensitive assets, or pension funds with significant bond exposure, next Thursday is a date worth marking.
Inflation is rising, growth is being revised down, and the rate decision is nine days away. This is a week to be informed, not reactive.
CULTURE AND LIFE
V&A East opens in Stratford
The V&A East Museum opened its doors on Saturday 18 April in the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, one of the most significant cultural openings London has seen in years. Its inaugural exhibition, The Music is Black: A British Story, traces 125 years of Black British music from jazz and reggae through to grime, with Joan Armatrading's childhood guitar and fashion worn by Little Simz among the highlights. The permanent Why We Make galleries are free. The building itself, designed by O'Donnell + Tuomey, is striking and worth the journey east on its own terms. Book the main exhibition in advance at weekends.
Queen Elizabeth II: Her Life in Style at the King's Gallery
Opened last week at the King's Gallery, Buckingham Palace, this exhibition traces the late Queen's style across all ten decades of her life through around 200 garments, accessories and personal items. Highlights include designs by Norman Hartnell and Hardy Amies, her Coronation dress, and the ensemble worn at Princess Margaret's wedding in 1960, alongside never-before-seen design sketches and handwritten correspondence. A rare and intimate exhibition about a life lived almost entirely in the public eye. Tickets from 22, running until October.
Paula Rego: Story Line at Victoria Miro
Paula Rego: Story Line continues at Victoria Miro until 23 May, free entry. The show brings together drawings spanning her entire career, from a sketch of her grandmother made when she was nine to works completed shortly before her death in 2022. Rego told difficult, precise stories about women's lives, and this exhibition offers an intimate window into her process and her thinking. One of the more absorbing shows in London right now, and one that rewards a slow visit.
ON THE HORIZON
30 April: Bank of England rate decision
The MPC meets on 30 April for what is now one of the most consequential rate decisions in years. A hold at 3.75% is expected but is no longer a formality. The accompanying statement and Governor Bailey's press conference will be scrutinised for any shift in the MPC's assessment of whether a hike is needed to contain the second-round effects of the energy price shock.
Hormuz and the diplomatic calendar
France and the UK are co-organising a conference of nations willing to contribute to restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The timing and outcome of that meeting will be material to the energy and inflation outlook for the rest of 2026. Separately, Trump is reported to be considering a visit to Pakistan to push the Iran peace process forward. The next few weeks on the diplomatic front could move markets significantly in either direction.
Last week: Rose Wylie closes at the Royal Academy
If you did not make it to Rose Wylie's landmark survey at the Royal Academy before it closed on Sunday 19 April, it is unfortunately gone now. A reminder to book early for the next show you want to see: Cecily Brown opens at the Serpentine on 27 March and runs until September, and Frida Kahlo arrives at Tate Modern in June for what will be the exhibition of the summer.
The Dura Society | Women Wealth Well-Being
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